To usher in the Year of the Dragon, a 5-room HDB flat at Toa Payoh was reportedly sold at a record price of $1,568,888 in late January 2024. This was a flat located at The Peak @ Toa Payoh, an HDB flat built under the old design, build and sell scheme (DBSS) that has a lease start date of 2012.
The first HDB flat that hit the $1.5 million mark was for an 4-room HDB resale flat at Tiong Bahru sold in May 2023. This was for a unit with a 48-year lease remaining. However, its unique appeal was that it was an adjoined unit spanning 1,894 square feet. This means it is a combination of two 3-room flats.
The first HDB flat that was sold at the $1 million mark was an Executive Maisonette along Mei Ling Street in Queenstown in 2012.
$1 Million HDB Flat Is No Longer Rare
The first thing to note is that the price barrier, once broken, becomes a lot more achievable over time. Whether it’s Roger Bannister becoming the first man to run a mile (1.6 km) under 4 minutes – a feat once thought of as impossible, or Chuck Yeager becoming the first person to break the sound barrier as he flew at a speed of 1,125km/hr, what used to be considered impossible can seem much more realistic when it’s broken once.
As of 2023, 22 out of 27 housing estates in Singapore have HDB flats that cost more than $1 million.
Thus, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see more HDB flats in the next couple of years selling at $1.5 million or more. But could we see an HDB flat achieving the $2 million mark within the decade?
The $2 Million HDB Flat?
It took about 11 years for prices to move from the record $1 million HDB mark to $1.5 million. Could prices move to the $2 million mark in the next 6 years?
The first thing that we need to note is that according to the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI), HDB prices hit a peak in 2Q2013 when the RPI was at 149.4). It was only until 3Q2021, when the RPI hit 150.6, that it finally broke the previous high.
Source: HDB
In other words, HDB flat price actually stagnated for about eight years, at least according to the RPI. Without questions, the multiple rounds of property cooling measures played a key role in keeping prices in check.
As most of us would already know from experience, the property market moves in cycles, and once price picks up, they can move very quickly. Since the RPI broke the previous high in 3Q2021, HDB resale prices have continued rising. As of 4Q2023, the RPI is at 180.4. This means prices have gone up by about 20% in nine quarters, or at an average of about 2.2% per quarter (8.8% a year)
If we choose to be bullish with the HDB property market and simply extrapolate the data over the next 6 years, this would suggest that HDB prices could increase by about 52% which would take our current $1.56 million HDB flat to $2.37 million.
If we choose to be bearish and compare the current RPI (180.4 as of 4Q2023) to what it was 10 years ago (145.8 as of 4Q2013), we would see that HDB resale prices have increased by about 24% or about 2.4% per year. This is quite a conservative approach because it takes into consideration the period between 4Q2013 to 2Q2019 (almost 6 years) when the RPI was mostly in decline in most quarters. Based on this assumption, the next 6 years would see prices increased by 14.4% (2.4% per year), taking our $1.56 million HDB flat to a price of around $1.80 million.
From the current level, prices would need to increase by about 28% to reach $2 million before 2030, or an increase of about 4.7% per year, or about 1.2% per quarter. This is, in our view, actually a somewhat realistic expectation that does not seem overly bullish or conservative.
Read Also: HDB Price Guide: 5 Cheapest HDB Estates For 2023
Which HDB Developments Have A Chance Of Hitting $2 Million
If we are looking at HDB developments hitting $2 million within the decade, then we would be looking at flats that are already completed today as any HDB flats would still be required to serve their 5-year MOP (or more) upon being completed.
Also, it’s likely that a 5-room (or larger) HDB flat would hit the price level first before 4-room flats can attain it.
Besides The Peak @ Toa Payoh, a few other iconic developments come to mind.
5-Room Flat At Pinnacle@Duxton
A 50-storey residential development in Singapore city centre, there are two sky gardens that connect the HDB project, with seven looming connected towers overlooking Singapore’s Central Business District. There is currently already a listing for a 5-room flat at Pinnacle@Duxton with an asking price of $1.75 million. Based on online research, actual transactions over the last 12 months for higher floor units are within the range of $1.35 million to $1.45 million.
5-Room Flat At SkyVille@Dawson
SkyVille@Dawson is a project located in Queenstown commissioned by the HDB on a strict public sector budget and yet with the requirements of community, variety, and sustainability. The HDB project stands 47 storeys tall and was part of the BTO sales launch in 2009 which was completed in 2015. Based on research, actual transactions over the last 12 months for units are within the range of $1.25 million to $1.27 million.
5-Room Flat At SkyTerrance@Dawson
The project is located in Dawson Estate, by Margaret Drive on the North and by Dawson Road on the West. There is currently a listing with an asking price of $1.41 million for a 5-room flat.
CityVue@Henderson
Located at Henderson Road in District Three, the HDB development is within walking distance to Redhill MRT and Tiong Bahru MRT. Built in 2018, the development has eight blocks towering 48 floors, and 1,232 units. There are roofs with benches as well as stone benches at its sky gardens.
Asking price for 5-room flats are between $1.5 to $1.6 million currently. Based on research, actual transactions over the last 12 months for units are within the range of $1.30 million to $1.46 million.
Natura Loft (DBSS at Bishan)
Launched in November 2008, this was the fourth DBSS project in Singapore that had condo-features such as an underground basement carpark and a condominium façade. A 5-room flat was sold in 2023 for $1.43 million.
Executive Maisonettes At Bishan
Within Bishan, there are currently a few listings of Executive Maisonette HDB flats with asking prices of between $1.80 million and $1.98 million. The size of these 2-storey units are at 1,580 square feet. Given the rarity of these units and the desirability of Bishan as a housing estate, one of these units, when sold, could come really close to the $2 million in the next few years.
Read Also: 10 Mega HDB Projects That Are Better Than Condominiums
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