Alternative 101, Featured Author

investors rotating out of stocks into safe Treasuries – 2Aug

Posted on
by

 

Falling bond yields and the prospect of lower interest rates may have helped fuel investors’ animal spirits and the recent mega rally in world stocks, but it’s a different story when borrowing costs are falling because recession fears are rising.

That’s the market landscape investors in Asia wake up to on Friday after disappointing U.S. factory data on Thursday slammed U.S. Treasury yields, Wall Street, and stocks, prompting traders to start betting on a possible 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next month rather than 25 bps.

Figures showing a much larger-than-expected contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity last month followed purchasing managers index data earlier on Thursday that painted a similar picture in Germany, Japan and China.

Today’s Market News

With China’s economy already in the doldrums, renewed weakness in Europe and the U.S. is bad news for global growth. Central bank rate cuts, the latest of which came from the Bank of England on Thursday, may have to be deeper and faster than analysts and policymakers had bargained for.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tumbled 13 basis points, its biggest one-day fall this year, and is now below 4.0%. Never mind the great rotation out of Mega Tech into small caps, investors seem to be rotating out of stocks and into the safety of U.S. Treasuries.


 


 


 


 


 


AppleAmazon and Intel reported earnings after the U.S. close on Thursday and the early signs are investors were not impressed. Intel’s outlook, in particular, was bleak, and shares fell 15% in after-hours trading.

Key developments that could provide more direction to market on Friday:

South Korea inflation (July)

Australia producer price inflation (Q2)

U.S. non-farm payrolls (July)